“Activists are adopting symbols and language that are off-putting not just to the right but to people in the center and even liberals,” Steven Greene of North Carolina State University said. My colleague Michael Powell described this debate in The Times last week, and he quoted some experts who argued that language like “pregnant people” alienated many people. For years, other polls have repeatedly shown that a majority of people - women and men - support abortion access in many cases but also want significant restrictions (such as after the first trimester).Īs a recent Pew report put it, “Relatively few Americans on either side of the debate take an absolutist view on the legality of abortion - either supporting or opposing it at all times, regardless of circumstances.” The Democratic Party’s position is near one end of that spectrum, which can make it harder for the party to win over swing voters on the issue. As Floyd noted, the political environment seems to be unprecedented, which introduces significant uncertainty.īut there are also at least three reasons to wonder whether abortion will prove to be as potent as Democrats think.įirst, the recent Wall Street Journal poll suggesting that most Americans oppose any abortion restrictions may be an outlier.
Three caveatsĭemocrats may be right about the power of abortion this year. In a Times Opinion essay, Josh Marshall argued that Democratic candidates would help themselves by signing a pledge promising both to protect abortion rights and to break a filibuster to do so. In the long term, Democrats hope that they can channel public opinion to enshrine abortion access into law. They think the court’s decision - if, in fact, it overturns Roe, which remains uncertain - can help the party do better in this year’s midterms than many analysts have been predicting. With the country possibly on the verge of its biggest change in abortion policy since the 1970s, many Democrats see a major political opportunity. “When it was not under threat, support declined.” The Democratic hope “When the ability to have an abortion was under threat, support for it went up,” Beveridge told me. As you can see in the chart above, support for abortion also rose in the late 1980s and early 1990s, after two Supreme Court decisions that allowed states to impose more restrictions. These increases fit a historical pattern, noted Andrew Beveridge, a co-founder of Social Explorer, a demographic research tool. NB: OUR MOVIES ARE NOT FOR KIDS.Polls by the Pew Research Center and NBC News have also found rising support for abortion access in the past few years.
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